$MATIC = Great Long-Term Position
3 min read
Without wasting any time here, we're going to start on the daily resolution and look at the trajectory of Polygon's price action over time.
Specifically, we're going to start by drawing an overhead diagonal downtrend resistance from the previous localized high, which occurred in late December 2021.
Why are We Doing This?
To give us a sense for when the price broke out from this overhead diagonal downtrend resistance.
If we look closely (on the daily resolution, still), we can see where $Matic broke above this overhead diagonal downtrend resistance circa mid-2022.
Let's check out the price trajectory from that point in mid-2022 to present.
As we can see from the chart above, Matic has posted a +50% ROI dating back to that point in late July 2022.
This is in stark contrast with the overall market performance from that point to present (specifically Bitcoin and Ethereum).
Below is a look at the net change in price for Bitcoin over the same span of time (July 2022 - present).
Below is a look at the net change in price for Ethereum over the same span of time (July 2022 - Present).
Its worth noting that the above observations are only meant to serve as hasty comparisons to Matic's price action over the same span of time to exemplify the standout performance of this token over the past 6-7 months.
Piecing it All Together
Beyond noting that Matic's price action has been markedly more bullish than Bitcoin or Ethereum (both chosen as benchmarks given their market share % and corresponding 'weight' in influencing prevailing market trend and trajectory), its also worth observing:
For the vast majority of the period observed (July 2022 - Feb 2023) for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the price of both assets traded below the assets' close price on July 27th, 2022.
Contrary to the observation made in #1, Matic has spent almost as much time above its close on July 27th, 2022 as it did below.
Notable Recent Price Action
Let's take another look at Matic on the daily resolution.
As we can see in the chart above, from August 2022 to January 14th, 2023, Matic's price consistently failed to break above the 94 cent realm.
There's one notable exception where the price of Matic broke above this overhead horizontal resistance briefly from November 3th-12th, 2022.
As noted in the chart above, that breakout was spurred on by the SBF implosion that took place around that same time.
Notably, the implosion of FTX and Alameda put the existential fate of Solana (as both a project and ecosystem) into serious question since SBF and Alameda were both seen as the primary driving forces fueling the project's growth and sustainability.
Thus, when the SBF situation grew increasingly volatile and catastrophic, investors bought Matic anticipating that impending consequences for Solana would lead to an increased market share and prominence for the competitor.
As the chart above also shows, this sentiment was short-lived as the price of Matic dipped back down below the overhead horizontal resistance at 94 cents.
This most recent breakout in price for $Matic should be considered 'legit'.
We're going to make this one of our long-term positions (as mentioned in the Discord). Let's see how this trade pans out over the next quarter or two.